(The following contents of the original text of the original text from Cinda Securities "Coal mining: Indonesia and Southeast Asian Coal Supply and Demand Outlook") This issue of this issue:
The rapid increase in the population and economic promotion of energy consumption has increased, and the increase in coal consumption is particularly significant.With the rapid growth of population and economy, Southeast Asia is facing a significant increase in energy demand.The deepening of economic cooperation, the expansion of the market, and the strong attraction of low -cost labor for foreign capital have jointly promoted the rapid economic development and the growth of energy consumption.In particular, the increase in coal consumption is particularly significant, and it has become an important part of energy consumption in the region.Analysis of data from 2000 to 2022 shows that the annual compound annual growth rate of energy consumption of the five ASEAN countries reached 4.09%, which is twice the global averageKanpur Investment. Among them%.Although the proportion of fossil fuels has declined, the proportion of coal in the energy structure has increased significantly, especially since 2005, its growth rate has exceeded India.With the further transfer of the global industrial chain and the continuous development of urbanization and electrification in the region, we expect that the energy demand and coal consumption in the ASEAN region will continue to grow.
Coal is the main energy of the power system and will still maintain that position in the future.From 2005 to 2022, the capacity of the ASEAN area increased from 110GW to 310GW, an increase of 181.8%.Coal -fired installed capacity increased by the increase in the installed capacity of each power supply, increased from 22GW to 106GW, achieved an increase of 381.8%, and the proportion of installed capacity increased from 21%to 35%.21.4%.From the perspective of power generation, from 2005 to 2022, the coal power generation in ASEAN increased from 108.7TWH to 430.5TWH, and the proportion of power generation increased from 27%to 47%, accounting for the dominant position in the ASEAN power generation system.And we believe that with the decline in natural gas reserves in the future and the further increase of coal installation in some countries, coal will still occupy the main position in the power system; in addition, although Southeast Asian countries have set up a relatively radical energy transformation goal, in 2023 ASEANFrom the perspective of new energy consumption capacity and clean energy investment standards, it is difficult to actively contribute to the power generation side and the situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term.As of 2022, the wind power light voltage installation machine was 26GW, accounting for about 10%of the total installed capacity of Southeast Asia, while the air power photovoltaic power generation was 46.1GW, and the contribution to the total power generation was only 5%.
The growth of energy consumption in industrial development, especially the industrial metal industry, has greatly increased the demand for coal in recent years.From 2000 to 2020, the demand for the energy demand of ASEAN Industrial has remained upward. About 62%of the ASEAN Industrial Department's energy input from the ASEAN Industrial Department directly came from the combustion fossil fuel (self-provided power plant), and the power input of power at the power grid accounted for nearly 23%.In addition, the industrial metal industry has developed rapidly in recent yearsBangalore Stock Exchange. Taking Indonesia as an example, Indonesia is implementing the strategy of transforming the country into an important manufacturing center for electric vehicles and batteries.Supply energy.From 2021 to 2022, the coal consumption of metallurgical power plants increased from 11.39 million tons to 49.38 million tons, an increase of 333%year-on-year.In 2023, the construction target of the Indonesian comprehensive mineral smelter was 17.
Indonesia is the leading coal production and exporter in Southeast Asia, and its coal production and exports have been greatly affected by the policy.Indonesia's coal resources are almost all mined for open -air, mainly for medium and low -calorie coal, and 91%of the output is concentrated on Kalimantan Island.The Indonesian national output plan and DMO domestic supply is two important policies that determine Indonesia's output and export volume.In 2023, Indonesia's coal plan production was 695 million tons, and the actual output was 775 million tons, exceeding 11.5%, and the deviation value of 2020-2023 was within 4%.In 2024, Indonesia's planned output was 710 million tons, which was 15 million tons higher than in 2023, and the corresponding output growth may also be limited.DMO plans to stipulate that at least 25%of the output is used for domestic supply. In recent years, with the growth of domestic coal consumption in Indonesia, the proportion of coal used in China has increased year by year. In 2023, the DMO plan is 177 million tons. The actual consumption may be about 230 million tons.In 2024, Indonesia's domestic coal consumption or further increase.
The coal price center maintained a relatively high level, and the profit growth of coal exports stimulated production growth, which also led to increased costs.After 2020, international coal prices have entered a rising channel, and the low cost, high supply elasticity, and unique geographical advantages have continued to increase the exports of Indonesia in the international market.Based on Indonesia's extensive coal management and the excellent mining conditions of the open-air mine itself, Indonesian coal companies actively expand their production under the high profit brought by coal exports. Indonesia's coal production has increased sharply.High growth.However, from our statistics on listed companies, after 2020, Indonesia does not have a newly invested mine to contribute production capacity, and capital expenditures are mostly used for improving infrastructure and transportation facilities instead of new mine projects.Considering the continuous growth peeling ratio, the deterioration of mining conditions, the increase in labor costs and franchise fees of the year -on -year growth, Indonesian coal companies have set more conservative production plans.Agra Wealth Management
The net coal exports in Southeast Asia may decline year by year in the future.In recent years, Indonesia's coal supply has increased rapidly. The compound growth rate of compound growth in 2020-2023 is 11.04%, and the output in 2023 is 775 million tons. As a result, the net coal exports in Southeast Asia have maintained an upward trend after 2020, from 2.51 in 2020 2.51 in 2020100 million tons rose to 368 million tons in 2023.IEA predicts the negative growth of Indonesia's coal production in 2024-2026, and we believe that Indonesia's subsequent production growth rate may be narrowed but still maintains positive growth.With the gradual narrowing of Indonesia's supply growth after 2024, coal consumption in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries has further improved, and the net exports of coal in Southeast Asia may decline.
Investment recommendations: Combined with our research and judgment on the energy production capacity cycle, we believe that under the situation of the increase in coal production in the country, the supply of coal supply is tight and tightened, or the entire "14th Five -Year Plan" or even the "15th Five -Year Plan" will continue. We continue to continueLooking at the multi -coal sector, it is recommended to pay attention to the historic configuration opportunities of coal.Focusing on the bottom up: First, Yankuang Energy, Guanghui Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Shanmei International, and Jinkong Coal Industry with large space and extension of the space and excellent resource endowment;Value re -estimation improvement of coal central enterprises India, India, China, China Coal Energy, New Energy, etc. Third, the high -quality metallurgical coal company of global resources, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi coking coal, Xunan Enhanng, Panjiang sharesFourth, it is recommended to pay attention to orchid innovation, Huayang shares, etc., which can do metallurgical spraying coal, and related opportunities in the field of coal production and construction under the new round of production capacity cycle, such as Tiandi Technology and Tianma Zhikong.
Risk factors: The world macroeconomic growth rate is less than expected, and the price of coal prices has fallen sharply; a safety production accident in Indonesia's coal mines; major adjustments to the energy industry policy in Southeast Asia, the "energy transformation" strategy has accelerated;No expectations.
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