More and more signs show that after India lowered gold import tariffs this summer, Indian consumers' demand for gold or gold bars has increased, which has increasingly becoming a key driving force behind the global gold price ...
According to data released by the Indian government this week, according to the US dollar value, India's gold imports in August reached US $ 10.06 billion, a historical highest level.
Based on the initial estimation of the consulting company Metals Focus, this is equivalent to about 131 tons of gold imports, and the calculation of import volume is also expected to reach the sixth highest in history.
International gold prices have risen by a quarter since the beginning of this year.Generally, high gold prices often make it prohibitive to the price -sensitive Asian buyers, but the recent Indian market has obviously "immunity" for high prices.
We have introduced last month that the Indian government has reduced the gold import tariff at the end of July by 9 percentage points, which is promoting the demand for the world's second largest gold consumer country to increase again.
Philip Newman, general manager of Metals Focus, said, "The impact of tariff reduction is unprecedented and incredible. This really attracts consumers."
The tariff reduction has brought the gospel to the Indian jewelry store. The MK jewelry shop located in the Bandrax District of Mumbai's high -end community has deeply felt the popular consumption enthusiasm of the Indian people at the moment.The shop chief Ram Raimalani said, "the current demand is very hot."
Raimalani predicts that during the traditional festival and wedding season in September this year to February next year, the sales of the store will be expected to increase significantly by 40%year -on -year.Raimalani praised the Indian government and Prime Minister Modi to reduce golden tariffs.
Next will be the key
According to data from the World Gold Association of the industry institution, India's demand for gold jewelry last year accounted for about one -third of the world's demand, and has become the world's second largest gold bars and gold coin market.
However, with the continuous rise in international gold prices, whether the hot demand in India's domestic market will always maintain it, it may become the key.Harshal Barot, a senior research consultant of Metals Focus, believes that the current hot demand in the local market means that the gold price in India is also quickly catching up with the level before the tariff reduction.
Barot said, "All the benefits brought by tariffs are about to disappear. The price is still rising now, and we have to see if consumers still buy as usual."
According to data from the World Gold Association, before the import tariffs were reduced, India's gold jewelry purchases have actually declined, and the demand in the first half of 2024 has reached the lowest level since 2020.
However, Raimalani predicts that regardless of whether the price of gold falls from historical highs, Indian jewelry demand will remain strong in the coming wedding season.
He said, "The price of soaring gold does not hinder his customers. When the price rises, the Indians are actually the happiest because they already have so much gold. This is like an investment."
In fact, even if folk demand has cooled, the Bank of India may continue to rank among the central bank camps that have increased their holdings in the world.In the first seven months of this year, the gold reserve of the Indian Bank increased by 42 tons of gold, which was more than twice the purchase volume in 2023.Surat Stock
A person familiar with the idea of the central bank of India said that purchasing gold is a "routine" job for its foreign exchange reserves and the stable management of currency.
In the world's largest gold consumer country India, although this year's increasingly expensive gold price means that the sales of gold jewelry have decreased, the sales of gold bars and gold coins are still increasing.According to data from the World Gold Association, the sales of gold bars and gold coins in the second quarter increased by 62%compared with the same period last year.Bangalore Wealth Management
When talking about India, the World Gold Association wrote, "We observe that there is a strong positive correlation between gold investment demand and gold price."
All of this helps support the physical market and reduce the negative impact of high prices on gold demand.Paul Wong, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management, said, "This laid a stable foundation for demand. In some parts of Asia, gold is easy to exchange for currency, which makes gold a popular savings tool."
At the same time, according to the Xinhua News Agency, with the Federal Reserve Commission for 4 years to restart interest rate cuts, the central banks are densely announced the latest interest rate policies.The central banks of Indonesia, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia decided to cut interest rates. The central banks of the United Kingdom, Norway, Turkey and other national banks continued to choose for the time being due to inflation pressure. The Brazilian central bank raised interest rates for the first time in two years due to inflation.
Affected by the global interest rate cut, the international gold price rose again on Friday.Yesterday evening, the spot price of London's gold rose by 1.36%, renewing a record high. The latest offer was $ 2621.74/ounce, and the cumulative increase of 27.11%since the beginning of the year.COMEX gold also reached a new high, closing up 1.24%, offer at $ 2647.1/ounce, and the cumulative increase of 27.77%since the beginning of the year.
Source: Global Jewelry Network
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